TOO CLEVER,YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET !

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-was-trudeaus-grand-bargain-just-a-little-too-clever/

The Trans Mountain thing was a dud from the beginning , and likely unfixable.

Confusing  times, yes. Recall when our  leaders attended the  Paris  Climate Gabfest… .They returned  without a clue offered for   Canadian  solutions.

 

 

Our scientists are said to be released to speak to the public about their scientific work…so far not a word about ITER ,which now is building a prototype fusion plant in France…scheduled for start-up in , 2025….. Thousands of engineers and scientists have contributed to the design of ‘ITER’ since the idea for an international joint experiment in fusion was first launched in 1985. What has IPCC built ??

President Donald Trump just joined the ITER club  and kicked in $100 million  ,plus.

 

Some say fusion power is not the answer. Let our  scientists explain to us,  please !

 

Yes, do slow down  building carbon dioxide generating infrastructure…There must be  a studied transition period ..Do   not want  to starve our forests of that vital ‘pollutant’ , carbon dioxide…thinks about that  possibility !!

 

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THANKS to APPEALS COURT FOR QUASHING TMX …

see    https://www.nsnews.com/news/tsleil-waututh-decry-new-review-rules-on-pipeline-projects-1.23170089   …..

 

 

MP Wilkinson said (at Feb 8 press conference in Victoria) the new environmental assessment (Impact Assessment Act) process for major projects will  no longer depend entirely on proponents’, scientific data.  Ottawa will pay to bring in external scientific experts and  will consider a broader range of potential impacts…… and “seek to obtain consent” from Indigenous groups.  He added, “In our view that doesn’t constitute a veto.”

Premier Horgan : Ottawa “a couple of years late” in coming up with the changes.

 

Risk assessments are a requirement for major infrastructure to protect the interests of the investors(owners) AND the public. Recall,  Canadians  are  new owners of TMX !

.

 

The challenge is to   minimize the probability of a tanker spill ,by reducing, to the minimum, tanker traffic in our busy waters… So far ,Government has NOT looked for the least risk pipeline/ terminal location and  tanker routing !

Let IAA help us to locate the least risk option  ??

 

GREAT CANADIANS

……may be of interest…more stuff you don’t need to know !

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/remembering-maurice-strong-eve-cop-21

Possibly some of you have not read much of Canada’s  once upon a time ,favourite  son….The UN and some world leaders fell under his spell…see the link to get an idea about the power of  this wannabe world leader.  Search Google and you will find many stories…some see Maurice as a god and others as the devil !! This guy had the gift of the gab and thought the world  would be better off with a world government…He mingled freely/easily with world leaders ,like few others…

Before saving the world he managed to die a multimillionaire. He died in Canada on the eve of COP21(attended by a plane load of Canadians …Paris, in April, is so nice !) and received much acclaim for his effort to bring the Climate Change (IPCC) religion to the fore…He spent is latter years in China where he is said to have negotiated many worldwide coal supply contracts to assist China in  reaching  its world economic status…for a handsome fee ??

Maurice chaired several powerful Canadian Corporations…and but for some sloppy bookkeeping might have become the UN Leader .An interesting  Canadian .

Be proud !

I’ve kept an eye on Maurice for decades having heard him speak in my early career…and still cannot believe how he succeeded .Reminds me of a certain leader in our midst today !

Thank goodness for  Wayne Gretzky ,a real Great One !

 

CONTINUE THE FIGHT !

Attention Mike Hurley; Mayor Elect Burnaby

 

Following may be of interest…I’m a long-time opponent of the shaky pipeline offerings we’ve seen  from our governments…my blog shows some of the history…

 

Mike Hurley. I sent an  email to Stewart Kennedy before noticing that  you intend to continue working, in the Burnaby public interest, to dislodge the ill-conceived Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX) pipeline, as proposed .Welcome to the pack !

Included is some background on how/why we are in this pipeline/tanker pickle. The mention of South China Seas tanker sinking should note that the tanker was double hulled…that’s great but all tankers can/will fail if we route them through unnecessarily risky routes …it’s just a matter of time and luck ?

 

 

 

 

Many  hope that you will continue the Vancouver Mayor’s fight  to ‘fix’ the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) mess…Following are some notes that may be  helpful ..

Humans  seek to make  life’s chores  easier ! Some  achievements ;

1.the wheel

2.horseless carriage

3.the flying machine

developments in modern medicine

6.electricity

7.discovery and utilization of fossil fuels

8.concepts under study, still  to be   fully developed..

9.and the yet to be discovered.

We continually create  major projects  ,typically after  expert science-based risk assessments to protect the interests of the public and investors ! Our Trans Mountain Expansion TMX pipeline proposal was approved by government without any independent risk assessment.

Thank goodness for the more publically  concerned Appeals Court …that ordered a new more rigorous assessment !

 

There is a 1978 Federal Government study  ( POTENTIAL PACIFIC COAST OIL PORTS —A COMPARATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS, by Fisheries and Environment Canada, Vancouver, which  evaluated 27 west coast ports and available shipping routes …. the Vancouver Harbour was not mentioned !

 

Related risk studies for our shared southern waters have been carried out by Washington State with  U.S. EPA funding.

https://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/VTRA/PSP/FINAL%20REPORT/PSP%20FINAL%20REPORT%20-%20DRAFT%20012214%20-%20HQ.pdf  We’ve seen no similar  BC or Canada  studies ??

 

OK ,more shipping traffic is inevitable and necessary…Our challenge is to minimize the probability of a tanker spill !. Relatively ‘minor’ spills  have not been handled satisfactorily  .Ask the folks in Bella Bella !! Will more government spill cleanup equipment help if/when a major spill episode happens ,such as recent South China Seas tanker sinking ?  see link below…

 

The best solution is to minimize that probability…that’s what airport location experts do to ensure that a Boeing 747 will never land in your bedroom. We know that this goal  will NEVER be met…The  only achievable goal is work towards  minimizing probability of  such an event !!

 

The TMX assessment is an example of ‘how not to’ decide about increasing  increase traffic volumes !As it turned out the Prime Minister’s flawed/inadequately studied TMX plan  turned out to be the basis for our Appeals Court deciding the TMX, as proposed, is not acceptable.

 

Our challenge is to locate the least risky tanker routes on the Pacific Coast .

Further ,when announcing the Government decision to appoint a  Chief Science Advisor, the Science Minister offered that science will be considered before deciding…We saw no such endeavor !

 

The appointed Chief Science Advisor should have been consulted !. Another ‘botch up’ here was the apparent lack of consultation with the Government stable of Professional Engineers and/or scientists

 

Having sensed the public concern about the increased tanker traffic PM Harper ordered a shipping study of BC Coast, by Clear Seas.  Did  the Liberals kill or just  ignore that PM ordered Clear Seas study ??

Why produce  risk studies…? Fortunately, Boeing 747s rarely   land in our bedrooms …Risk studies help to minimize such risks…but we can’t say that the 747 bedroom landing will never happen ! ’Never’, never happens !.…The goal then is ‘to minimize’ damage(consequences)..

 

Minimizing damage to wild life and marine areas is a reasonable goal. That’s what BC seeks .An expert independent risk assessment is required to indicate the probability of a dilbit tanker spill if  the 7 fold increase in tanker traffic is permitted .Surely ,Port of Vancouver officials would want to see such an independent risk assessment. Right ?

 

Our  Appeals court also has instructed that the potential impact of the greater tanker traffic be determined and dealt with.

The simple analogy for me is to do the risk analysis of the 7 fold increase in the Salish Sea  and compare to the suggested  Port Simpson or other more suitable pipeline  terminal location. Then decide !

FYI ,the Hong Kong airport was replaced with a multi- billion dollar airport, built on a man-made island…. before that 747 Boeing  landed in a downtown Kowloon  bedroom… great, gutsy  planning by Hong Kong .

 

Double hulled vessels is said to make the TMX less risky…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/16/east-china-sea-oil-tanker-disaster-what-it-means-for-the-environment

The South China Seas ship was carrying …. about 1 million barrels…. that now threatens to pollute some of China’s most important fishing waters.

We must make our maximum effort to ensure we have only minimum probability of a ‘China Seas  incident’ near  our shores. We’ve yet to see the independent, expert risk assessment

GOVERNMENT SCIENTISTS AND PROFESSIONAL ENGINEERS—forgotten !

The  Professional Engineers….are bound by a code of ethics …and ” hold paramount the safety …of the public…and environment “ …https://engineerscanada.ca/code-of-ethics .

 

The question of relative risk to the BC public/environment  is the issue .

 

Did the PM ever ask those Professional Engineers ,or other scientists, in   Ottawa to review and advise as to the safety, health and welfare of the public and the protection of the environment…” relative ….to  the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline proposal?

We’ve heard that government scientists are to be given more freedom to discuss their government work with the public…we’ve heard  nothing publically, yet !

I expect that your Chief Science Advisor  would advise the Prime Minister about how/what should be done to ensure that this TMX is not allowed to proceed until the question of ‘relative risk’ to the public and environment is reviewed and resolved .

 

TMX APPEAL

Squamish leaders told Appeals  court they didn’t feel they had enough information to decide ….about….TMX!

Precisely…Neither the NEB or Government cared /dared to provide an  ,independent, expert  (science based)risk assessment for this potentially risky/ hazardous , major infrastructure(which included a shipping terminal ,pipelines and /storage tanks) along with and greatly increased number of loaded tankers  required by their export plan.

Infrastructure projects like TMX   typically are subjected to a  risk study to protect the interests of the investors  and the public

Fortunately our Court of Appeal ,  saw TMX approval process   as incomplete , and essentially agreed with the community  tanker related threats  and First Nations issues! Our government has stable of scientists and Professional Engineers which could/should  have counselled about the increased risk associated with planned  increased number of loaded tankers in our  southern waters. What did your experts counsel ?

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

THE BIGGER BETTER TMX.

See https://theconversation.com/no-quick-or-easy-resolution-to-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-question-103034

Any  plan  would be ‘quicker’ than that endured to date !   Build    NEW  ,larger capacity  pipeline  from     Alberta to an export terminal near  Port Simpson which coincidentally removes many of the Appeal Court’s  issues related to the increased tanker traffic.

The  Prime Minister, could  follow up with your offer to mediate (with First Nations), and bring a fruitful conclusion to this  critical national issue  !

The assessment/design of a new pipeline system would be supported with Governments new Bill C 69 ,with a more rigorous assessment criteria ,thereby  addressing many of the issues ‘omitted’ by TMX and the NEB during the original assessment !

A modified  Oceans Protection Plan(OPP) could still go ahead ,as we still find ourselves short of adequate resources to deal with  the typical spills such as the Bella Bella incident.

Should the PM  be successful  in negotiations with First Nations then consider   the joint-use facilities right of way concept and possibly a  west coast refinery ?

I suggest that this would be a more community acceptable   plan.

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

THANK YOU

 

Our   Court of Appeal   ‘ listened’ ,thank you !  Government  chose  not hear us .

A  BC Ferry passenger vessel sunk(2006)  . Recently , a  DOUBLE HULLED oil (condensate) laden tanker sank in the South China Sea .

Yes, ships  sink !

Uncounted numbers of smaller marine cargo vessels continually serve   our remote/ coastal communities with vital goods.!  Google  “Bella Bella oil spill”, etc..

Airplanes fall from the sky … we still fly….. Do you plan to stop driving  ?

Our Government’ planned  Oil Protection Plan (OPP)  likely could  be helpful with  smaller spills …but for  the BIG ONE the best plan is to minimize probability  of that fully laden “tanker”  sinking !

How ? Typically ,for major infrastructure ,such as a new airport/terminal  or Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX)pipeline,  independent expert   risk assessments  are  produced  to assist in selecting the least risky option  ,   to better protect the interests of  investors and the public.  Did our Government  care ?

Now this Government  ‘wanna’ sell you their 65 year old pipeline …and their ill-conceived diluted bitumen export scheme !

 

A CONSTRUCTIVE FIX FOR TMX…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-to-solve-interprovincial-conflicts-first-find-common-ground-leblanc/

 

Dominic LeBlanc arrives at a cabinet shuffle to be sworn-in as Minister of Intergovernmental and Northern Affairs and Internal Trade at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, on July 18, 2018.

The Trudeau government is finding it increasingly difficult to fulfill some of its signature policy commitments thanks to a growing list of ideological tensions

The prime minister’s instruction to me was to do so in a collaborative, constructive way,” he said. “I certainly don’t start with the view that it should be adversarial.”

There’s still a chance that the Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX) pipeline will never be built as presently approved by Government. The project ,as offered by the Kinder Morgan, missed the opportunity to gain “community permission” for this project was immediately judged unacceptable by the communities which would be directly affected when that inevitable  tanker spill happened in the busy, environmentally challenged waters of southern BC and the International Salish Sea .Even the Government recognized it’s glaring omission when it didn’t allow NEB to seek  independent ,scientists to counsel about the obvious increased tanker spill risk when tanker traffic is increased 7 fold ! The PM told media that he would apply his new more rigorous project  assessment  criteria to the TMX project… Had this been done it would have become obvious that new ,less risky tanker routing was required ! The  Chief Science Advisor could/should have explained to Cabinet the importance and significance of a thorough , independent  risk assessment ….as required in your Government Omnibus  C 69 .

Taking this approach would quickly remove some of the adversarial component of the ill-conceived TMX proposal as proposed .,Already the costs are assume to be much higher than estimated and the tax payers want to see a new proposal that gives Canadians the benefit of exporting resources  while minimizing the potential for tanker spills in our busy ,Vancouver Harbour and inter Gulf Island tanker routes as proposed for TMX.

Government  scientists would have identified the potential riskiness of the TMX had they, or the Chief Science Advisor  been asked for an opinion !

Opportunity exists now to remove the TMX shortcomings…and build new infrastructure to carry diluted bitumen from Alberta to a more risk free tanker loading terminal where tankers  would enter the open Pacific without having to navigate through the Gulf Islands and the International Salish Sea ! I’d guess he Canada has yet to hear strong objections from Washington State….or President Donald  Trump !

Government study showed the least risk terminal location is near Port Simpson…and the most risky terminal location is Vancouver Harbour !Here’s a clear place to start by collaborating …and I’d guess ,with little ‘adversary’.

 

see http://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/Mining/Geoscience/MapPlace/thematicmaps/OffshoreMapGallery/Documents/West-Coast-Oil-Port-Inquiry-Statement-of-Proceedings.pdf

 

Estimated cost appear to be increasing significantly and I doubt  Canadians want to see the TMX as proposed and would much sooner see a less risky proposal ,which could export more Alberta bitumen ,in larger tankers that would need to travel shorter distances to reach Asia markets.

Recall that any infrastructure bears some degree of risk…that’s why typically any major infrastructure proposal, is subjected to an independent risk assessment to protect the investors and the public …The public might ask why was this independent risk assessment step  ignored  for TMX ??

The objections were not ‘ideological tensions’ but instead were based on lack SCIENCE  which our Prime Minister has suggested was to be the basis of government decisions ! The BC government wanted more scientific assurance that tanker spills could be adequately cleanup(not ideological). Lack of science was the issue .

Recall that Mr. Al Monaco ,CEO and President of Enbridge once hinted that their Northern Gateway Pipeline(PNG) terminal ‘possibly ‘ might be moved out of Douglas Channel…why not ask Enbridge to review their market data and invite them to consider purchase of your government pipeline/tanker infrastructure !

 

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4114205/danielle-smith-trans-mountain-pipeline/   Also see this video

 

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

 

 

 

 

 

BUILD NEW, SMARTER ,PIPELINE/TANKER INFRASTRUCTURE …

 

On behalf of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, I would like to acknowledge receipt of your correspondence.

 

Thank you for writing. The Prime Minister welcomes the views of Canadians on the issues that are important to them. You may be assured that your comments have been duly noted.

 

Once again, thank you for taking the time to write.

 

J.P. Vachon

Manager/Gestionnaire

Executive Correspondence Services

for the Prime Minister’s Office

Services de la correspondance

de la haute direction

pour le Cabinet du Premier ministre

 

>>>   From : Carl Shalansky  cshalansky@shaw.ca      Received : 06  Aug  2018 03:39:14 PM   >>>

 

>>>   Subject : FW: Location. Location….!   >>>>

 

 

 

Attention: Al Monaco President  and CEO Enbridge…

 

 

 

 

 

Mr.  Prime Minster, you have an opportunity to create a new, more community accepted, greater resources export plan by implementing your more rigorous project assessment criteria… Omnibus Bill C 69….and at the same time  presenting Government an opportunity ‘to exit’ the  TMX  pipeline/tanker export business .Recall when Al Monaco hinted to the media that Enbridge possibly might move out of Douglas  Channel …. This ‘hint’  now  presents itself as ‘the solution’ to Canada’s current  diluted bitumen  (dilbit) export dilemma .

 

Assume  a new pipeline/tanker terminal location, at Port Simpson….where larger oil tankers could immediately enter the open Pacific and travel much shorter distances to reach the Asia markets  .

 

Let a major Canadian pipeline/export operator assist in completing this vital export opportunity, including possibly owning and operating the original Trans Mountain Oil pipeline business !

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

 

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

 

(604) 986-4657