About fickser

A retired professional engineer--Chem Eng grad UBC 1957--currently offering comment about BC bitumen pipeline/tanker issues...

ORCAS,TMX,NEB

http://www.sanjuanjournal.com/news/tribes-give-spoken-testimonies-against-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion/

Chief Bill James  emphasized “the pipeline expansion  affect entire ecosystems…from Orcas to humans……I hope your spirit will understand”. …

Lisa Wilson : “ Unless we do something …we’re going to lose this …”

“ Jeremy Wilbur…  fishing gear lost  ……tankers rarely stay in their …designated lanes…” !

This Trans Mountain Expansion …may bring us to the point of no return” ?

The U.S. has studied0  shipping traffic in the Salish Sea…. their report concludes (pg. 157)   https://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/VTRA/PSP/FINAL%20REPORT/PSP%20FINAL%20REPORT%20-%20DRAFT%20012214%20-%20HQ.pdf   “To put it simply……there is no guarantee that risk increases due to traffic increases can be fully mitigated…”

 

 

Canada’s  challenge is to minimize the probability of dilbit tanker spill with rigorous independent  risk assessments of the BC/Washington coast.

.Canada’s 1978 shipping  study suggests a port location  somewhere north of Prince Rupert .(see attach)..

 

 

Lyne Mercier, chairwoman of the reconsideration board, said that spoken testimonies are a reminder of regional tribes’ tradition of oral history and that the information, “cannot always be adequately shared in writing ”  Personal, oral presentations can be powerful …and difficult to evaluate…The Chairwoman  has a challenge before her.

Good Luck.

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TMX DEMISE

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/what-will-it-take-to-build-trans-mountain-what-will-it-take-to-stop-it-1.4920315

 

 

UBC professor Kathryn Harrison was interviewed (see link above)and offers some  incisive comment about our  leader…During the interview  (18 minutes) the professor comments that  Justin Trudeau ‘promised all things to all people’ …and recalls his comment that “the environment and the economy  go together”  .Not easy so long as Alberta wants to produce and sell more bitumen while at the same time the PM   fully commits  Canada to the COP21 mandate !

Now other wrenches are thrown into the works….Bombardier, GM Oshawa closure, Ontario (Conservative)Premier Ford…all in the Liberal heartland…and the yet to be changed government in Alberta??

The question CBC asked was not answered. We know that there is no way for the TMX should  be built as proposed. Mike Priaro ,P Eng. ,Alberta ,has the potential answer with his pipeline diversion plan at Sumas ,BC.

 

The  Energy East might be revived  as Eastern Canadians look for jobs and Liberals search for votes !!

Might as well reopen the Pacific Northern Gateway Pipeline (PNG) with the shipping terminal located at Port Simpson(instead of Kitimat)…Time for compromise and appropriate scientific analysis.

Airplanes  still fall from the skies, yet we still fly…We must accept the  occasional tanker and /or pipeline will fail …leaving us with the only choice…we must make our best effort to minimize these more serious events… … by applying the best available risk assessment science ,before deciding .

Our leader failed to meaningful consult with First Nations   and  look for community permission  , BEFORE  deciding about TMX !!

 

Thanks to our Federal Court of Appeal for ordering Government to correct for these glaring omissions.

TOO CLEVER,YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET !

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-was-trudeaus-grand-bargain-just-a-little-too-clever/

The Trans Mountain thing was a dud from the beginning , and likely unfixable.

Confusing  times, yes. Recall when our  leaders attended the  Paris  Climate Gabfest… .They returned  without a clue offered for   Canadian  solutions.

 

 

Our scientists are said to be released to speak to the public about their scientific work…so far not a word about ITER ,which now is building a prototype fusion plant in France…scheduled for start-up in , 2025….. Thousands of engineers and scientists have contributed to the design of ‘ITER’ since the idea for an international joint experiment in fusion was first launched in 1985. What has IPCC built ??

President Donald Trump just joined the ITER club  and kicked in $100 million  ,plus.

 

Some say fusion power is not the answer. Let our  scientists explain to us,  please !

 

Yes, do slow down  building carbon dioxide generating infrastructure…There must be  a studied transition period ..Do   not want  to starve our forests of that vital ‘pollutant’ , carbon dioxide…thinks about that  possibility !!

 

THANKS to APPEALS COURT FOR QUASHING TMX …

see    https://www.nsnews.com/news/tsleil-waututh-decry-new-review-rules-on-pipeline-projects-1.23170089   …..

 

 

MP Wilkinson said (at Feb 8 press conference in Victoria) the new environmental assessment (Impact Assessment Act) process for major projects will  no longer depend entirely on proponents’, scientific data.  Ottawa will pay to bring in external scientific experts and  will consider a broader range of potential impacts…… and “seek to obtain consent” from Indigenous groups.  He added, “In our view that doesn’t constitute a veto.”

Premier Horgan : Ottawa “a couple of years late” in coming up with the changes.

 

Risk assessments are a requirement for major infrastructure to protect the interests of the investors(owners) AND the public. Recall,  Canadians  are  new owners of TMX !

.

 

The challenge is to   minimize the probability of a tanker spill ,by reducing, to the minimum, tanker traffic in our busy waters… So far ,Government has NOT looked for the least risk pipeline/ terminal location and  tanker routing !

Let IAA help us to locate the least risk option  ??

 

GREAT CANADIANS

……may be of interest…more stuff you don’t need to know !

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/remembering-maurice-strong-eve-cop-21

Possibly some of you have not read much of Canada’s  once upon a time ,favourite  son….The UN and some world leaders fell under his spell…see the link to get an idea about the power of  this wannabe world leader.  Search Google and you will find many stories…some see Maurice as a god and others as the devil !! This guy had the gift of the gab and thought the world  would be better off with a world government…He mingled freely/easily with world leaders ,like few others…

Before saving the world he managed to die a multimillionaire. He died in Canada on the eve of COP21(attended by a plane load of Canadians …Paris, in April, is so nice !) and received much acclaim for his effort to bring the Climate Change (IPCC) religion to the fore…He spent is latter years in China where he is said to have negotiated many worldwide coal supply contracts to assist China in  reaching  its world economic status…for a handsome fee ??

Maurice chaired several powerful Canadian Corporations…and but for some sloppy bookkeeping might have become the UN Leader .An interesting  Canadian .

Be proud !

I’ve kept an eye on Maurice for decades having heard him speak in my early career…and still cannot believe how he succeeded .Reminds me of a certain leader in our midst today !

Thank goodness for  Wayne Gretzky ,a real Great One !

 

CONTINUE THE FIGHT !

Attention Mike Hurley; Mayor Elect Burnaby

 

Following may be of interest…I’m a long-time opponent of the shaky pipeline offerings we’ve seen  from our governments…my blog shows some of the history…

 

Mike Hurley. I sent an  email to Stewart Kennedy before noticing that  you intend to continue working, in the Burnaby public interest, to dislodge the ill-conceived Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX) pipeline, as proposed .Welcome to the pack !

Included is some background on how/why we are in this pipeline/tanker pickle. The mention of South China Seas tanker sinking should note that the tanker was double hulled…that’s great but all tankers can/will fail if we route them through unnecessarily risky routes …it’s just a matter of time and luck ?

 

 

 

 

Many  hope that you will continue the Vancouver Mayor’s fight  to ‘fix’ the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) mess…Following are some notes that may be  helpful ..

Humans  seek to make  life’s chores  easier ! Some  achievements ;

1.the wheel

2.horseless carriage

3.the flying machine

developments in modern medicine

6.electricity

7.discovery and utilization of fossil fuels

8.concepts under study, still  to be   fully developed..

9.and the yet to be discovered.

We continually create  major projects  ,typically after  expert science-based risk assessments to protect the interests of the public and investors ! Our Trans Mountain Expansion TMX pipeline proposal was approved by government without any independent risk assessment.

Thank goodness for the more publically  concerned Appeals Court …that ordered a new more rigorous assessment !

 

There is a 1978 Federal Government study  ( POTENTIAL PACIFIC COAST OIL PORTS —A COMPARATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS, by Fisheries and Environment Canada, Vancouver, which  evaluated 27 west coast ports and available shipping routes …. the Vancouver Harbour was not mentioned !

 

Related risk studies for our shared southern waters have been carried out by Washington State with  U.S. EPA funding.

https://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/VTRA/PSP/FINAL%20REPORT/PSP%20FINAL%20REPORT%20-%20DRAFT%20012214%20-%20HQ.pdf  We’ve seen no similar  BC or Canada  studies ??

 

OK ,more shipping traffic is inevitable and necessary…Our challenge is to minimize the probability of a tanker spill !. Relatively ‘minor’ spills  have not been handled satisfactorily  .Ask the folks in Bella Bella !! Will more government spill cleanup equipment help if/when a major spill episode happens ,such as recent South China Seas tanker sinking ?  see link below…

 

The best solution is to minimize that probability…that’s what airport location experts do to ensure that a Boeing 747 will never land in your bedroom. We know that this goal  will NEVER be met…The  only achievable goal is work towards  minimizing probability of  such an event !!

 

The TMX assessment is an example of ‘how not to’ decide about increasing  increase traffic volumes !As it turned out the Prime Minister’s flawed/inadequately studied TMX plan  turned out to be the basis for our Appeals Court deciding the TMX, as proposed, is not acceptable.

 

Our challenge is to locate the least risky tanker routes on the Pacific Coast .

Further ,when announcing the Government decision to appoint a  Chief Science Advisor, the Science Minister offered that science will be considered before deciding…We saw no such endeavor !

 

The appointed Chief Science Advisor should have been consulted !. Another ‘botch up’ here was the apparent lack of consultation with the Government stable of Professional Engineers and/or scientists

 

Having sensed the public concern about the increased tanker traffic PM Harper ordered a shipping study of BC Coast, by Clear Seas.  Did  the Liberals kill or just  ignore that PM ordered Clear Seas study ??

Why produce  risk studies…? Fortunately, Boeing 747s rarely   land in our bedrooms …Risk studies help to minimize such risks…but we can’t say that the 747 bedroom landing will never happen ! ’Never’, never happens !.…The goal then is ‘to minimize’ damage(consequences)..

 

Minimizing damage to wild life and marine areas is a reasonable goal. That’s what BC seeks .An expert independent risk assessment is required to indicate the probability of a dilbit tanker spill if  the 7 fold increase in tanker traffic is permitted .Surely ,Port of Vancouver officials would want to see such an independent risk assessment. Right ?

 

Our  Appeals court also has instructed that the potential impact of the greater tanker traffic be determined and dealt with.

The simple analogy for me is to do the risk analysis of the 7 fold increase in the Salish Sea  and compare to the suggested  Port Simpson or other more suitable pipeline  terminal location. Then decide !

FYI ,the Hong Kong airport was replaced with a multi- billion dollar airport, built on a man-made island…. before that 747 Boeing  landed in a downtown Kowloon  bedroom… great, gutsy  planning by Hong Kong .

 

Double hulled vessels is said to make the TMX less risky…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/16/east-china-sea-oil-tanker-disaster-what-it-means-for-the-environment

The South China Seas ship was carrying …. about 1 million barrels…. that now threatens to pollute some of China’s most important fishing waters.

We must make our maximum effort to ensure we have only minimum probability of a ‘China Seas  incident’ near  our shores. We’ve yet to see the independent, expert risk assessment

GOVERNMENT SCIENTISTS AND PROFESSIONAL ENGINEERS—forgotten !

The  Professional Engineers….are bound by a code of ethics …and ” hold paramount the safety …of the public…and environment “ …https://engineerscanada.ca/code-of-ethics .

 

The question of relative risk to the BC public/environment  is the issue .

 

Did the PM ever ask those Professional Engineers ,or other scientists, in   Ottawa to review and advise as to the safety, health and welfare of the public and the protection of the environment…” relative ….to  the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline proposal?

We’ve heard that government scientists are to be given more freedom to discuss their government work with the public…we’ve heard  nothing publically, yet !

I expect that your Chief Science Advisor  would advise the Prime Minister about how/what should be done to ensure that this TMX is not allowed to proceed until the question of ‘relative risk’ to the public and environment is reviewed and resolved .

 

TMX APPEAL

Squamish leaders told Appeals  court they didn’t feel they had enough information to decide ….about….TMX!

Precisely…Neither the NEB or Government cared /dared to provide an  ,independent, expert  (science based)risk assessment for this potentially risky/ hazardous , major infrastructure(which included a shipping terminal ,pipelines and /storage tanks) along with and greatly increased number of loaded tankers  required by their export plan.

Infrastructure projects like TMX   typically are subjected to a  risk study to protect the interests of the investors  and the public

Fortunately our Court of Appeal ,  saw TMX approval process   as incomplete , and essentially agreed with the community  tanker related threats  and First Nations issues! Our government has stable of scientists and Professional Engineers which could/should  have counselled about the increased risk associated with planned  increased number of loaded tankers in our  southern waters. What did your experts counsel ?

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

THE BIGGER BETTER TMX.

See https://theconversation.com/no-quick-or-easy-resolution-to-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-question-103034

Any  plan  would be ‘quicker’ than that endured to date !   Build    NEW  ,larger capacity  pipeline  from     Alberta to an export terminal near  Port Simpson which coincidentally removes many of the Appeal Court’s  issues related to the increased tanker traffic.

The  Prime Minister, could  follow up with your offer to mediate (with First Nations), and bring a fruitful conclusion to this  critical national issue  !

The assessment/design of a new pipeline system would be supported with Governments new Bill C 69 ,with a more rigorous assessment criteria ,thereby  addressing many of the issues ‘omitted’ by TMX and the NEB during the original assessment !

A modified  Oceans Protection Plan(OPP) could still go ahead ,as we still find ourselves short of adequate resources to deal with  the typical spills such as the Bella Bella incident.

Should the PM  be successful  in negotiations with First Nations then consider   the joint-use facilities right of way concept and possibly a  west coast refinery ?

I suggest that this would be a more community acceptable   plan.

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

THANK YOU

 

Our   Court of Appeal   ‘ listened’ ,thank you !  Government  chose  not hear us .

A  BC Ferry passenger vessel sunk(2006)  . Recently , a  DOUBLE HULLED oil (condensate) laden tanker sank in the South China Sea .

Yes, ships  sink !

Uncounted numbers of smaller marine cargo vessels continually serve   our remote/ coastal communities with vital goods.!  Google  “Bella Bella oil spill”, etc..

Airplanes fall from the sky … we still fly….. Do you plan to stop driving  ?

Our Government’ planned  Oil Protection Plan (OPP)  likely could  be helpful with  smaller spills …but for  the BIG ONE the best plan is to minimize probability  of that fully laden “tanker”  sinking !

How ? Typically ,for major infrastructure ,such as a new airport/terminal  or Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX)pipeline,  independent expert   risk assessments  are  produced  to assist in selecting the least risky option  ,   to better protect the interests of  investors and the public.  Did our Government  care ?

Now this Government  ‘wanna’ sell you their 65 year old pipeline …and their ill-conceived diluted bitumen export scheme !