About fickser

A retired professional engineer--Chem Eng grad UBC 1957--currently offering comment about BC bitumen pipeline/tanker issues...

THE BIGGER BETTER TMX.

See https://theconversation.com/no-quick-or-easy-resolution-to-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-question-103034

Any  plan  would be ‘quicker’ than that endured to date !   Build    NEW  ,larger capacity  pipeline  from     Alberta to an export terminal near  Port Simpson which coincidentally removes many of the Appeal Court’s  issues related to the increased tanker traffic.

The  Prime Minister, could  follow up with your offer to mediate (with First Nations), and bring a fruitful conclusion to this  critical national issue  !

The assessment/design of a new pipeline system would be supported with Governments new Bill C 69 ,with a more rigorous assessment criteria ,thereby  addressing many of the issues ‘omitted’ by TMX and the NEB during the original assessment !

A modified  Oceans Protection Plan(OPP) could still go ahead ,as we still find ourselves short of adequate resources to deal with  the typical spills such as the Bella Bella incident.

Should the PM  be successful  in negotiations with First Nations then consider   the joint-use facilities right of way concept and possibly a  west coast refinery ?

I suggest that this would be a more community acceptable   plan.

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

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THANK YOU

 

Our   Court of Appeal   ‘ listened’ ,thank you !  Government  chose  not hear us .

A  BC Ferry passenger vessel sunk(2006)  . Recently , a  DOUBLE HULLED oil (condensate) laden tanker sank in the South China Sea .

Yes, ships  sink !

Uncounted numbers of smaller marine cargo vessels continually serve   our remote/ coastal communities with vital goods.!  Google  “Bella Bella oil spill”, etc..

Airplanes fall from the sky … we still fly….. Do you plan to stop driving  ?

Our Government’ planned  Oil Protection Plan (OPP)  likely could  be helpful with  smaller spills …but for  the BIG ONE the best plan is to minimize probability  of that fully laden “tanker”  sinking !

How ? Typically ,for major infrastructure ,such as a new airport/terminal  or Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX)pipeline,  independent expert   risk assessments  are  produced  to assist in selecting the least risky option  ,   to better protect the interests of  investors and the public.  Did our Government  care ?

Now this Government  ‘wanna’ sell you their 65 year old pipeline …and their ill-conceived diluted bitumen export scheme !

 

A CONSTRUCTIVE FIX FOR TMX…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-to-solve-interprovincial-conflicts-first-find-common-ground-leblanc/

 

Dominic LeBlanc arrives at a cabinet shuffle to be sworn-in as Minister of Intergovernmental and Northern Affairs and Internal Trade at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, on July 18, 2018.

The Trudeau government is finding it increasingly difficult to fulfill some of its signature policy commitments thanks to a growing list of ideological tensions

The prime minister’s instruction to me was to do so in a collaborative, constructive way,” he said. “I certainly don’t start with the view that it should be adversarial.”

There’s still a chance that the Trans Mountain Expansion(TMX) pipeline will never be built as presently approved by Government. The project ,as offered by the Kinder Morgan, missed the opportunity to gain “community permission” for this project was immediately judged unacceptable by the communities which would be directly affected when that inevitable  tanker spill happened in the busy, environmentally challenged waters of southern BC and the International Salish Sea .Even the Government recognized it’s glaring omission when it didn’t allow NEB to seek  independent ,scientists to counsel about the obvious increased tanker spill risk when tanker traffic is increased 7 fold ! The PM told media that he would apply his new more rigorous project  assessment  criteria to the TMX project… Had this been done it would have become obvious that new ,less risky tanker routing was required ! The  Chief Science Advisor could/should have explained to Cabinet the importance and significance of a thorough , independent  risk assessment ….as required in your Government Omnibus  C 69 .

Taking this approach would quickly remove some of the adversarial component of the ill-conceived TMX proposal as proposed .,Already the costs are assume to be much higher than estimated and the tax payers want to see a new proposal that gives Canadians the benefit of exporting resources  while minimizing the potential for tanker spills in our busy ,Vancouver Harbour and inter Gulf Island tanker routes as proposed for TMX.

Government  scientists would have identified the potential riskiness of the TMX had they, or the Chief Science Advisor  been asked for an opinion !

Opportunity exists now to remove the TMX shortcomings…and build new infrastructure to carry diluted bitumen from Alberta to a more risk free tanker loading terminal where tankers  would enter the open Pacific without having to navigate through the Gulf Islands and the International Salish Sea ! I’d guess he Canada has yet to hear strong objections from Washington State….or President Donald  Trump !

Government study showed the least risk terminal location is near Port Simpson…and the most risky terminal location is Vancouver Harbour !Here’s a clear place to start by collaborating …and I’d guess ,with little ‘adversary’.

 

see http://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/Mining/Geoscience/MapPlace/thematicmaps/OffshoreMapGallery/Documents/West-Coast-Oil-Port-Inquiry-Statement-of-Proceedings.pdf

 

Estimated cost appear to be increasing significantly and I doubt  Canadians want to see the TMX as proposed and would much sooner see a less risky proposal ,which could export more Alberta bitumen ,in larger tankers that would need to travel shorter distances to reach Asia markets.

Recall that any infrastructure bears some degree of risk…that’s why typically any major infrastructure proposal, is subjected to an independent risk assessment to protect the investors and the public …The public might ask why was this independent risk assessment step  ignored  for TMX ??

The objections were not ‘ideological tensions’ but instead were based on lack SCIENCE  which our Prime Minister has suggested was to be the basis of government decisions ! The BC government wanted more scientific assurance that tanker spills could be adequately cleanup(not ideological). Lack of science was the issue .

Recall that Mr. Al Monaco ,CEO and President of Enbridge once hinted that their Northern Gateway Pipeline(PNG) terminal ‘possibly ‘ might be moved out of Douglas Channel…why not ask Enbridge to review their market data and invite them to consider purchase of your government pipeline/tanker infrastructure !

 

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4114205/danielle-smith-trans-mountain-pipeline/   Also see this video

 

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

 

 

 

 

 

BUILD NEW, SMARTER ,PIPELINE/TANKER INFRASTRUCTURE …

 

On behalf of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, I would like to acknowledge receipt of your correspondence.

 

Thank you for writing. The Prime Minister welcomes the views of Canadians on the issues that are important to them. You may be assured that your comments have been duly noted.

 

Once again, thank you for taking the time to write.

 

J.P. Vachon

Manager/Gestionnaire

Executive Correspondence Services

for the Prime Minister’s Office

Services de la correspondance

de la haute direction

pour le Cabinet du Premier ministre

 

>>>   From : Carl Shalansky  cshalansky@shaw.ca      Received : 06  Aug  2018 03:39:14 PM   >>>

 

>>>   Subject : FW: Location. Location….!   >>>>

 

 

 

Attention: Al Monaco President  and CEO Enbridge…

 

 

 

 

 

Mr.  Prime Minster, you have an opportunity to create a new, more community accepted, greater resources export plan by implementing your more rigorous project assessment criteria… Omnibus Bill C 69….and at the same time  presenting Government an opportunity ‘to exit’ the  TMX  pipeline/tanker export business .Recall when Al Monaco hinted to the media that Enbridge possibly might move out of Douglas  Channel …. This ‘hint’  now  presents itself as ‘the solution’ to Canada’s current  diluted bitumen  (dilbit) export dilemma .

 

Assume  a new pipeline/tanker terminal location, at Port Simpson….where larger oil tankers could immediately enter the open Pacific and travel much shorter distances to reach the Asia markets  .

 

Let a major Canadian pipeline/export operator assist in completing this vital export opportunity, including possibly owning and operating the original Trans Mountain Oil pipeline business !

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

 

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

 

(604) 986-4657

 

 

 

HOW BIG A CHUNK DONALD ?

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/07/26/news/elizabeth-may-hopes-donald-trump-will-block-kinder-morgans-trans-mountain-sale

Recall when campaigning  Donald Trump said   TransCanada Corp.(KXL) should  give the U.S. a “big, big chunk of the profits…!!! Who’s likely to purchase TMX from Canadian taxpayers with that potential Trump threat lingering ?? We’re stuck with the existing  65 year old pipeline  .Wine can improve with aging…pipelines ,not likely !

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

WAKEY ENBRIDGE…TIME TO ACT ….AND WIN !

Our government appears to have billions to spare…to build a goofy pipeline that NO COMMUNITY IN southern BC wants.  Our new Fisheries and Oceans Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.MP chose to not listen to his constituents and consequently was rewarded with a cushy new job.!! A couple of Liberal  MPs did speak in support of  constituents who disliked TCM.. Will  their  names on the next election ballot as a Liberal candidates…come Oct 2019 ?

Recall when  our Senate recommended   “government must … restore legitimacy to the pipeline approval process.”

http://www.parl.gc.ca/content/sen/committee/421/TRCM/Reports/FINALVERSION-PipelineStudy-2016-12-07_e.pdf

Recently our government recognized that TMX review process was “flawed” and Government  have now put together a much more “robust “ review/assessment process…clearly spelled out in Omnibus Bill C69. Canadians have an opportunity to apply these more rigorous assessment criteria…!

Saga after saga have developed as government struggled with the ill-conceived TMX pipeline to the extent that the proponent(Kinder Morgan) saw fit to walk away from their much publically challenged proposal ! Eventually Government panicked and bought out the Kinder Morgan project…for billions ! The original Government project review was flawed but the new Omnibus Bill assessment criteria would permit creation of a much less risky plan…particularly as it relates to the TMX  greatly increased tanker traffic in busy, environmentally challenged southern BC waters !

The opportunity to correct this unfortunate TMX plan exists as now the Canadian public own TMX. Should the new owners, Canadians , demand that government “restore legitimacy “with a new study carried out with Government’s own Bill C 69 more robust assessment criteria !

Start NOW and build new safer, larger infrastructure with a new pipeline from Alberta to near Port Simpson where larger tankers could enter the open Pacific without wiggling their way through our busy Salish Sea waters and end up with much closer access to Asia markets.

Yes ,such a plan would require dilbit laden tankers to deliver to Washington ,etc. to US refineries…a reasonable compromise to serve  existing customers while potentially  gaining the intended Enbridge(PNG) Asia markets .

This concept serves Alberta desire to increase exports, jobs ,tax revenues ,etc.   and BC’ desire to reduce potential tanker spill probability !

One more knee jerk task remains for the PM…remove his unfounded northen BC ban on crude oil tankers from travelling northern BC waters…maybe  new Minister (Wilkinson) could help with this chore ?

NEW OWNERS CAN NOW FIX TMX MESS !

 

 

Recall when  our Senate recommended   “government must … restore legitimacy to the pipeline approval process.”

http://www.parl.gc.ca/content/sen/committee/421/TRCM/Reports/FINALVERSION-PipelineStudy-2016-12-07_e.pdf

Recently our government recognized that TMX review process was “flawed” and Government  have now put together a much more “robust “ review/assessment process…clearly spelled out in Omnibus Bill C69. Recall when our PM told media that the new more robust assessment review process would be applied to the TMX !  This  was  not done…but now Canadians have an opportunity to apply these more rigorous assessment criteria…!

Saga after saga have developed as government struggled with the ill-conceived TMX pipeline to the extent that the proponent(Kinder Morgan) saw fit to walk away from their much publically challenged proposal ! Eventually Government panicked and bought out the Kinder Morgan project…for billions ! The original Government project review was flawed but the new Omnibus Bill assessment criteria would permit creation of a much less risky plan…particularly as it relates to the TMX  greatly increased tanker traffic in busy, environmentally challenged southern BC waters !

The opportunity to correct this unfortunate TMX plan exists as now the Canadian public own TMX. Should the new owners, Canadians , demand that government “restore legitimacy “with a new study carried out with Government’s own Bill C 69 more robust assessment criteria !

Start NOW and build new safer, larger infrastructure with a new pipeline from Alberta to near Port Simpson where larger tankers could enter the open Pacific without wiggling their way through our busy Salish Sea waters and end up with much closer access to Asia markets.

Yes ,such a plan would require dilbit laden tankers to deliver to Washington ,etc. to US refineries…a reasonable compromise to serve  existing customers while potentially  gaining the intended Enbridge(PNG) Asia markets .

This concept serves Alberta desire to increase exports, jobs ,tax revenues ,etc.   and BC’ desire to reduce potential tanker spill probability !

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

Washington State concerns

 

 

https://prod.greenpeaceusa.info/usa/reports/tanker-superhighway/

Lots of numbers thrown about by the potentially tanker spill  impacted public …but Canadian governments since day one have avoided any independent studies that would suggest that the Trans Mountain Expansion(TMCX) is anytjhing but a goofy ,ill-conceived plan…The Canadian governmsnent avoided carrying on any odependemt stufies,the BC government is yacking about wanting to find out more about the potential damages resulting from a tanker spill  but have shown no ‘independent ,hard science to suggest they are serious. The recent reports referred suggest that someone had better do something SOON !

Reports like these suggest that no one would be goofy enough to but this lemon of  diluted bitumen export plan …Would any one take it for  free??

The problem, since day one, has been concern about likelihood of a tanker spill in our southern BC ‘visitor industry’ marine business locations .Our Federal government never seemed to care ,while local communities screamed out about their concerns but did nothing but wring their hands and cry woe is me !

 

The so called public review process was flawed since day one and has recently been redrawn…see Omibus Bill C 69 which requires a much more rigorous assessment proces than existed during the TMX review ! Washington State has been concerned for years about the increased shipping in the Salish Sea and their independent risk assessment  report says  (see link below)CONCLUDED    “…simply…there is no guarantee that RISK increases ….. can be fully mitigated.”

See  http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/VTRA/PSP/FINAL%20REPORT/PSP%20FINAL%20REPORT%20-%20%20DRAFT%20021914%20-%20EXECUTIVE%20SUMMARY.pdf

 

However our national energy board chose to not review that available document ? Go figure.

The Canadian pipeline/export proposals have been hot topics for our governments…the recent Harper Federal government was defeated In part because of their refusal to listen to the BC communities .An even more drastic a result was the defeat of the Provincial Liberal government because they too chose to not listen. Such an outcome must be avoided wiring the Oct 2019 Federal election….and that folks is why we’re still dithering with this rather simple pipeline/tanker debacle.

Canadian government  engineers ,if called upon ,would soon have recognized the public concern about increased tanker spill risk from the proposed TMX7 fold increase in tankers  but it looks like they were nor consulted formally… Politics enters the picture…this simple export plan has turned into a potential time bomb during the upcoming Federal Election. Trans Mountain(Kinder Morgan) threatened to walk away from the project so our generous government  decided to purchase this ill-conceived project..The ongoing public dislike and willingness to resist this unacceptable project makes the future look bleak for any would be purchaser?

Luckily there is a common sense, win/win solution for this pipeline dilemma .

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

 

 

 

 

 

WANNA BUY A PIPELINE

 

 

https://prod.greenpeaceusa.info/usa/reports/tanker-superhighway/

Lots of numbers thrown about by the potentially tanker spill  impacted public …but Canadian governments since day one have avoided any independent studies that would suggest that the Trans Mountain Expansion(TMCX) is anytjhing but a goofy ,ill-conceived plan…The Canadian governmsnent avoided carrying on any odependemt stufies,the BC government is yacking about wanting to find out more about the potential damages resulting from a tanker spill  but have shown no ‘independent ,hard science to suggest they are serious. The recent reports referred suggest that someone had better do something SOON !

Reports like these suggest that no one would be goofy enough to but this lemon of  diluted bitumen export plan …Would any one take it for  free??

The problem, since day one, has been concern about likelihood of a tanker spill in our southern BC ‘visitor industry’ marine business locations .Our Federal government never seemed to care ,while local communities screamed out about their concerns but did nothing but wring their hands and cry woe is me !

 

The so called public review process was flawed since day one and has recently been redrawn…see Omibus Bill C 69 which requires a much more rigorous assessment proces than existed during the TMX review ! Washington State has been concerned for years about the increased shipping in the Salish Sea and their independent risk assessment  report says  (see link below)CONCLUDED    “…simply…there is no guarantee that RISK increases ….. can be fully mitigated.”

See  http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/VTRA/PSP/FINAL%20REPORT/PSP%20FINAL%20REPORT%20-%20%20DRAFT%20021914%20-%20EXECUTIVE%20SUMMARY.pdf

 

However our national energy board chose to not review that available document ? Go figure.

The Canadian pipeline/export proposals have been hot topics for our governments…the recent Harper Federal government was defeated In part because of their refusal to listen to the BC communities .An even more drastic a result was the defeat of the Provincial Liberal government because they too chose to not listen. Such an outcome must be avoided wiring the Oct 2019 Federal election….and that folks is why we’re still dithering with this rather simple pipeline/tanker debacle.

Canadian government  engineers ,if called upon ,would soon have recognized the public concern about increased tanker spill risk from the proposed TMX7 fold increase in tankers  but it looks like they were nor consulted formally… Politics enters the picture…this simple export plan has turned into a potential time bomb during the upcoming Federal Election. Trans Mountain(Kinder Morgan) threatened to walk away from the project so our generous government  decided to purchase this ill-conceived project..The ongoing public dislike and willingness to resist this unacceptable project makes the future look bleak for any would be purchaser?

Luckily there is a common sense, win/win solution for this pipeline dilemma .

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FLAWED PIPELINE/TANKER DECISION

 

 

 

Tankers/pipelines  don’t fail ,people fail …due to  fatigue/stress. lack of training, deferred maintenance ,etc.

Society (investors/public) must  rely on statistical risk assessments to determine  the probable life of infrastructure .The NEB recommended approval of TMX  without  any independent science to help protect   communities most likely to be impacted when that inevitable tanker spill occurs .While the TMX risk assessment suggested 1000+ year incident cycle…this does not prevent the spill from happening TOMORROW !

Why didn’t  the government  science/engineer community  demand that their employer(government)  not proceed …until they offered independent risk assessment counsel. The engineers  code of ethics demands such behavior…engineers must “ Be aware of, and ensure that clients and employers are made aware of, societal and environmental consequences of actions or projects and endeavour to interpret engineering issues to the public in an objective and truthful manner.

 

Carl Shalansky, P. Eng. (Retired)

Blog: https://redfern3359.wordpress.com/

(604) 986-4657